RADIANT RESEARCH
HONEST RECORD · DATABENTO NBBO QUOTES · MAY 2022 – SEP 2026 · 12:05 · gated

IV Drift

$3,616
net per year, after costs
$15,789
total, 75 rows
53%
row win rate
21 / 40
months positive
−$5,456
worst month

The complete rule

Gate (#16). S(t) = parity-ATM straddle mid. ivd = [S(11:59) ÷ S(09:35)] ÷ √(241/385) — the morning's premium decay against the clock. ivd > 0.9413 (frozen) means implied vol ROSE all morning: premium that refuses to melt is overpriced. Entry 12:05 fly, wings 3.5%, credit > $1.00, stop 2.0×, exit 15:55.

Pricing: every leg at the NBBO quote mid; quotes with spread > 50% of mid (options over $2) discarded; fly values clamped to [0, wing width]; wings = nearest strike with a live two-sided quote. Fees: $1.35 per contract-side + $0.25 per structure ($11.05 per round trip). Margin = width − credit (defined risk, exact).

0k10k20k20222023202420252026$15,789−$14,059$0DRAWDOWN FROM PEAK
('
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYear P&L
2022+0.8k+3.8k−0.4k−1.4k−5.5k+2.3k−$358
2023−2.1k−1.2k+0.8k+1.5k+2.2k−1.1k−1.7k−1.0k−1.2k−2.6k−$6,208
2024−0.7k−1.7k−0.1k+2.7k+2.0k−3.7k+1.7k+1.5k+5.4k−2.0k$5,111
2025+2.0k+3.7k+4.4k+3.1k+1.1k−0.4k+4.0k−0.7k+1.1k$18,383
2026+2.1k+2.3k+2.5k−3.2k−4.8k−$1,138
', day 2022-05 836.45 2022-06 3781.45 2022-07 -411.05 2022-09 -1398.15 2022-11 -5455.65 2022-12 2288.95 2023-02 -2070.65 2023-03 -1152.10 2023-05 801.45 2023-06 1541.45 2023-07 2216.45 2023-08 -1068.55 2023-09 -1708.55 2023-10 -964.60 2023-11 -1174.60 2023-12 -2628.55 2024-01 -735.65 2024-02 -1710.65 2024-03 -70.65 2024-04 2688.95 2024-05 2021.85 2024-06 -3707.35 2024-07 1708.30 2024-08 1532.90 2024-09 5363.95 2024-10 -1981.05 2025-01 2038.95 2025-03 3703.95 2025-04 4443.95 2025-05 3101.45 2025-06 1116.45 2025-07 -395.65 2025-09 4013.95 2025-10 -748.15 2025-12 1107.90 2026-01 2106.45 2026-04 2301.45 2026-05 2460.40 2026-06 -3240.65 2026-09 -4766.05 Name: pnl, dtype: float64)

Every trade, every leg

Newest first. Verify any row by hand: pull the quotes for the listed strikes at the listed minutes; entry credit = sold mids − bought mids; P&L = (credit − exit value) × 100 × qty − fees. Gate rows list the computed signal value against its frozen threshold.

DateIn→Out HowGate K Sold atBought backWings Wings in→outCreditExit valQty CostsNetMargin
2026-09-1612:05→15:18STOP1.286761523.85/23.400.15/94.607350·78500.20→0.1647.0594.601−11.05−$4,766$18,795
2026-06-1712:05→15:24STOP1.186752020.65/23.050.12/90.907255·77650.20→0.1643.5090.881−11.05−$4,749$20,150
2026-06-1212:05→15:55EOD0.989740022.75/24.6031.35/0.087140·76600.28→0.1647.0731.281−11.05$1,569$21,292
2026-06-1012:05→15:55EOD0.954732523.40/23.950.08/47.557070·75800.38→0.1646.9747.471−11.05−$61$20,802
2026-05-0712:05→15:55EOD0.982735512.10/10.750.08/21.357100·76100.16→0.1622.7021.281−11.05$131$23,230
2026-05-0412:05→15:55EOD0.994719513.60/14.203.95/0.436945·74050.18→0.1627.624.221−11.05$2,329$18,238
2026-04-2912:05→15:55EOD1.005713013.00/15.104.60/0.386880·73150.16→0.1627.954.821−11.05$2,301$15,705
2026-01-2812:05→15:55EOD0.959697513.55/15.557.80/0.126730·71250.16→0.1628.957.771−11.05$2,106$12,105
2025-12-1012:05→15:55EOD1.082684520.80/19.9545.65/0.086605·70100.20→0.1640.5545.581−11.05−$514$12,445
2025-12-0212:05→15:55EOD0.977682510.75/11.806.00/0.236585·69350.16→0.1622.406.071−11.05$1,621$8,760
2025-10-2912:05→15:55EOD1.246690017.55/18.500.15/12.456660·71400.18→0.1635.8712.451−11.05$2,331$20,412
2025-10-1612:05→15:55EOD0.986666518.70/17.600.08/35.106430·68400.25→0.1636.0535.021−11.05$91$13,895
2025-10-1512:05→13:15STOP1.028667016.20/14.652.60/60.206435·68400.20→0.5530.6562.251−11.05−$3,171$13,935
2025-09-1712:05→15:55EOD1.337660023.00/23.204.35/1.306370·68300.44→0.1645.755.501−11.05$4,014$18,425
2025-07-3012:05→15:55EOD1.093638012.70/11.350.08/24.356155·65300.16→0.1623.9024.281−11.05−$49$12,610
2025-07-2312:05→15:55EOD0.95663456.35/7.2010.85/0.086125·64200.16→0.1613.4010.781−11.05$251$6,160
2025-07-1612:05→15:55EOD0.98862409.50/9.8025.10/0.086020·63550.16→0.1619.1525.031−11.05−$599$9,585
2025-06-1812:05→15:55EOD1.062600517.05/16.200.08/21.705795·61950.36→0.1632.9021.631−11.05$1,116$15,710
2025-05-0712:05→15:55EOD1.003562019.80/22.1010.15/0.355425·58150.42→0.1641.4810.351−11.05$3,101$15,352
2025-04-2312:05→15:55EOD1.018539025.95/25.800.90/5.155200·55801.30→0.1650.455.901−11.05$4,444$13,955
2025-03-0612:05→15:55EOD0.977574523.50/22.453.85/4.905545·59450.20→0.1645.758.601−11.05$3,704$15,425
2025-01-2912:05→15:55EOD1.112605016.40/14.350.20/10.055840·61800.16→0.1630.6010.101−11.05$2,039$9,940
2024-10-2512:05→13:44STOP1.08158408.30/9.700.80/36.955635·59300.18→0.2317.8237.521−11.05−$1,981$7,218
2024-09-1812:05→15:55EOD1.225562030.80/30.705.75/1.705425·58000.46→0.1661.057.301−11.05$5,364$11,895
2024-08-2012:05→15:55EOD0.99856058.00/8.950.17/8.905410·56900.16→0.1616.808.931−11.05$776$6,820
2024-08-1212:05→15:55EOD0.946535513.60/11.150.08/17.005170·54550.16→0.1624.6016.931−11.05$756$7,540
2024-07-3112:05→15:55EOD1.035552517.70/19.704.95/3.605330·56550.16→0.1637.258.401−11.05$2,874$9,275
2024-07-2212:05→15:55EOD0.975553011.60/9.8035.00/0.085375·56550.16→0.1621.2534.921−11.05−$1,379$10,375
2024-07-1512:05→15:55EOD0.987565010.20/9.400.08/22.455495·57350.16→0.1619.4522.381−11.05−$304$6,555
2024-07-0112:05→15:55EOD0.96854657.95/9.8012.40/0.085340·55550.16→0.1617.6012.321−11.05$516$7,240
2024-06-2812:05→15:32STOP1.01154959.35/9.400.12/37.755360·56050.16→0.1618.6037.721−11.05−$1,924$9,140
2024-06-2012:05→13:35STOP0.98954908.20/7.650.60/31.705375·55850.16→0.1615.7032.151−11.05−$1,656$7,930
2024-06-1412:05→15:55EOD0.94754206.55/9.006.10/0.255250·55000.16→0.1615.406.201−11.05$909$6,460
2024-06-1312:05→15:55EOD0.96154159.00/9.2019.75/0.085295·55100.16→0.1618.0519.681−11.05−$174$7,695
2024-06-1212:05→15:55EOD1.194543516.70/16.400.90/7.205245·55500.16→0.1632.957.951−11.05$2,489$8,205
2024-06-1112:05→15:55EOD1.03253457.95/6.6028.30/0.085220·54150.16→0.1614.4028.231−11.05−$1,394$5,560
2024-06-0412:05→14:45STOP0.94952609.35/9.8038.40/0.235145·53550.16→0.1619.0038.481−11.05−$1,959$7,600
2024-05-2212:05→14:21STOP1.01053156.75/4.450.72/23.405210·53700.16→0.1611.0523.981−11.05−$1,304$4,395
2024-05-0212:05→15:55EOD0.942504011.35/10.7019.10/0.084865·51500.16→0.1621.9019.031−11.05$276$8,810
2024-05-0112:05→15:55EOD1.152502018.70/19.756.30/1.554845·51900.16→0.1638.307.701−11.05$3,049$13,170
2024-04-1612:05→15:55EOD1.098505515.70/17.105.00/0.804880·52200.16→0.1632.655.651−11.05$2,689$13,235
2024-03-2012:05→15:55EOD1.260518017.55/19.0038.95/0.085015·52950.16→0.1636.4038.881−11.05−$259$7,860
2024-03-1312:05→15:55EOD0.97651706.95/6.850.17/7.355045·52550.16→0.1613.657.371−11.05$616$7,135
2024-03-0812:05→15:55EOD0.944515010.90/10.150.08/25.155015·52800.16→0.1620.9025.071−11.05−$429$10,910
2024-02-1512:05→15:55EOD1.02450107.60/8.0518.35/0.084885·50850.16→0.1615.5018.281−11.05−$289$5,950
2024-02-1412:05→15:55EOD1.01149609.25/11.2038.75/0.084830·50700.16→0.1620.3038.671−11.05−$1,849$8,970
2024-02-0612:05→15:55EOD1.00849407.15/8.9011.60/0.084835·50250.16→0.1615.9011.531−11.05$426$6,910
2024-01-3112:05→15:55EOD1.099488515.00/13.150.08/33.304770·50250.16→0.1628.0033.221−11.05−$534$8,700
2024-01-2912:05→15:08STOP0.94748955.85/5.6023.10/0.284780·49700.16→0.1611.3023.231−11.05−$1,204$6,370
2024-01-2512:05→15:55EOD0.95548858.15/6.654.50/0.174765·49700.16→0.1614.654.521−11.05$1,001$7,035
2023-12-1312:05→14:42STOP1.251464513.30/11.1550.30/0.324515·47600.16→0.1624.3050.471−11.05−$2,629$9,070
2023-11-0912:05→13:07STOP0.95243905.85/7.950.45/28.104260·44600.16→0.1613.6528.401−11.05−$1,486$5,635
2023-11-0112:05→15:55EOD0.993421514.55/14.4525.70/0.084065·43200.16→0.1628.8525.621−11.05$311$7,615
2023-10-1912:05→15:55EOD1.075432012.80/12.300.08/38.654170·44200.16→0.1624.9538.581−11.05−$1,374$7,505
2023-10-0212:05→15:55EOD0.945427010.00/9.6015.15/0.234160·43750.18→0.1619.4315.221−11.05$409$8,558
2023-09-2012:05→15:55EOD1.180445013.95/11.500.08/42.354320·45600.16→0.1625.3042.271−11.05−$1,709$8,470
2023-08-1612:05→15:55EOD0.97444357.50/8.450.08/26.454315·45250.16→0.1615.8026.381−11.05−$1,069$7,420
2023-07-2612:05→15:55EOD1.134456013.85/11.501.35/1.734435·46700.16→0.1625.202.921−11.05$2,216$8,480
2023-06-1412:05→15:55EOD1.121438014.80/16.000.08/15.204225·45250.16→0.1630.6515.121−11.05$1,541$11,435
2023-05-0312:05→15:55EOD1.275412520.20/18.800.08/30.803980·42600.16→0.1638.8530.721−11.05$801$9,615
2023-03-2212:05→15:55EOD1.267400028.55/26.100.08/50.953860·41400.57→0.1654.0750.881−11.05$309$8,593
2023-03-1012:05→15:55EOD0.950390012.95/15.200.08/42.503765·40350.23→0.1627.9342.421−11.05−$1,461$10,708
2023-02-2212:05→15:55EOD1.016400012.70/12.500.08/14.853860·41150.16→0.1625.0514.781−11.05$1,016$8,995
2023-02-0712:05→15:55EOD1.121411519.10/16.9554.20/0.083970·42350.16→0.1635.9054.121−11.05−$1,834$8,410
2023-02-0112:05→15:55EOD1.210405526.30/24.5562.90/0.083915·41950.46→0.1650.4062.821−11.05−$1,254$8,960
2022-12-1412:05→15:55EOD1.326404534.55/36.200.08/45.203905·41852.62→0.1668.1245.121−11.05$2,289$7,188
2022-11-3012:05→15:10STOP1.271395522.70/22.6590.60/0.083815·40800.16→0.1645.2090.521−11.05−$4,544$7,980
2022-11-2312:05→15:55EOD1.099401011.30/11.0014.55/0.083870·41100.16→0.1622.1514.481−11.05$756$7,785
2022-11-0212:05→15:55EOD1.262384028.70/29.950.08/73.853705·39751.45→0.1657.2073.771−11.05−$1,669$7,780
2022-09-2112:05→15:55EOD1.183387533.00/32.200.12/76.903740·40102.07→0.1663.1276.881−11.05−$1,386$7,188
2022-09-1212:05→15:55EOD0.993409511.05/12.1513.15/0.083950·41850.16→0.1623.0513.081−11.05$986$6,695
2022-09-0612:05→15:55EOD1.033394012.55/14.300.08/36.653800·40450.16→0.1626.7036.571−11.05−$999$7,830
2022-07-2712:05→15:55EOD1.107398020.85/22.9047.60/0.083840·40900.23→0.1643.5247.521−11.05−$411$6,647
2022-06-1512:05→15:55EOD1.101377033.25/30.7522.95/0.103640·39003.18→0.1660.8222.901−11.05$3,781$6,918
2022-05-1712:05→15:55EOD0.967406014.15/16.2521.85/0.083920·41850.16→0.1630.2521.781−11.05$836$9,475
Radiant Research — honest-data record. Backtested on Databento OPRA NBBO quotes (no lookahead; see the Clean-Data Audit). Not live results, not a solicitation, not investment advice.

Radiant Research is a research demonstration by the V6 systematic trading project. All results are backtested on historical exchange data (Jun 2024 – Sep 2026 for SPX), net of modelled commissions, exchange and regulatory fees and half the bid–ask spread. They are not live results, not a solicitation, and not investment advice. Options involve substantial risk of loss.